Cowen acknowledged that September has traditionally been a challenging month for BTC, often characterized by negative price movements. He emphasized that while historical trends suggest a red month for Bitcoin in September, there are no guarantees, and occasional green September does occur.
The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin had experienced six consecutive red September from 2017 to 2022. The average return for Bitcoin in September has historically been around -6.6%, with a standard deviation that adds to the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency’s performance.
Cowen then delved into the potential price decline for Bitcoin in September. Given Bitcoin’s opening price of just below $26,000 for the month, a 7% decrease would bring its value to approximately $24,000. He further pointed out that in the pre-halving year of 2019, Bitcoin witnessed a 14% drop in September, potentially pushing its price down to $22,000.
To bolster his argument, Cowen referred to a recent tweet in which he speculated a substantial chance of Bitcoin reaching $23,000 in September. Although he stressed that this prediction is far from a guarantee, he underscored the seasonal pattern, the downward momentum, and the recent monthly close below certain support levels as factors that make a dip to $23,000 plausible.
Moreover, Cowen discussed the average returns in all pre-halving years for the month, revealing a drop of approximately 17.7%, which could result in Bitcoin trading at around $21,500 if history repeats itself.
On August’s performance, Cowen noted that Bitcoin had already experienced a 10% drop. While August’s long-term average is approximately 21%, averaging only the last two pre-halving years (2015 and 2019) suggests a more modest -11% to -12% average drop. This highlights that Bitcoin may follow a similar pattern in September, potentially softening the blow to around $24,000.
Cowen emphasized that despite the uncertainty, the seasonality of Bitcoin and the existing downward momentum make a test of the $23,000 level highly likely in the near future, possibly in September or October.
Cowen reflected on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements in a broader context, stating that it often alternates between bullish and bearish phases. He stressed that during pre-halving years, Bitcoin tends to rise significantly during the first half and experience declines in the latter half. According to Cowen, this pattern is designed to “wreck” both bulls and bears before entering a period of sustained growth.
He also pointed out that while BTC may face challenges in the short term, once quantitative easing (QE) returns and the cryptocurrency market sentiment improves, altcoins could regain momentum.
In conclusion, Cowen cautioned his audience to remain vigilant in September, historically a month of red returns for Bitcoin. He urged caution, citing past data and market dynamics as indicators of a potentially challenging month ahead. While the future remains uncertain, Cowen’s data-driven analysis serves as a valuable resource for those navigating the turbulent waters of the cryptocurrency market. Investors and enthusiasts will undoubtedly watch closely to see if Bitcoin’s performance aligns with his predictions in the coming weeks and months.
